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Convos Passe?

By Siobhan Gorman

Spiraling Security Costs May Force Changes in Conventions And Limit the Number of Cities Willing to Host Them

So here we are, on the final day of the convention, and the 22,000-or-so security forces at the Republican National Convention have ably shielded us from terrorism (and aerosol cans and perfume and umbrellas), directed wayward delegates, and even hailed taxicabs for less-city-savvy conventioneers. But the so-far enormously successful show of force does have one major side-effect: an astonishing price tag.

"The implications are horrendous," says former Republican National Committee Chairman Frank Fahrenkopf. "There are 10, at
most 15, cities capable of putting on a national convention. I'm afraid that with the escalating costs of preparing for
terrorism, you're going to have an awful lot of cities that will say, 'Gee, we'd like to have it, but we can't afford it.' "

Fahrenkopf, who worked on the bidding for the GOP's 1984 convention in Dallas and 1988 convention in New Orleans, said
that cities carefully evaluate the economic benefits of a convention -- everything from increased hotel stays to cab fares
-- and balance against that the cost of the disruption to the city, which has been amplified enormously by ballooning security
requirements.

Before the 2004 Democratic and Republican conventions had even started, leaders in both parties were fretting that rising
security costs could dissuade cities from taking on conventions in the future.

The final price tag for security here is estimated to account for $70 million to $75 million of the $166 million in
total spending, which was about what New York City had anticipated. In Boston, the final cost for security was $35
million to $40 million, less than the expected $50 million but still nearly half of the $95 million total spending. Fahrenkopf
also pointed to the $1.2 billion spent on security for the Athens Olympics as a cautionary tale about the future costs of
convention security.

Meanwhile, the economic gains, while positive, are unlikely to be as high as either city had expected. A Beacon Hill
Institute study found that while New York assumed it would make $260 million, it will probably net $163 million. And for Boston,
Beacon Hill found just a $15 million net boost.

And in a way, the 2004 GOP convention is the best-case security scenario -- because of the New York Police Department's
experience level. "The NYPD has got this down to a science," said Jerome Hauer, former director of New York City's Office of
Emergency Management, now a homeland-security expert at George Washington University. Hauer said that the terrorism threat is
likely to persist.

"Our principal concern from the beginning was, and remains, the threat of terrorism," echoed Paul Browne, the NYPD's deputy
commissioner for public information. Escalating security costs could markedly alter conventions as we know them, says Don Fowler, former chairman of the Democratic National Committee. And given the dearth of substantive work done at these conventions, he adds, that would be a welcome change.
Fowler, who has played a major role in every Democratic convention since 1968 (though a more minor one in the recent convention) immediately ticked off four possible changes that security and cost concerns could force:

1) cut down the number of delegates and alternates;

2) pool media coverage to reduce press numbers;

3) condense the convention to two or three days;

4) hold sessions in the daytime.

"My guess is, when you get to 2008, when the Congress and the administration start looking for an extra $100 million or
$150 million or $200 million, someone is going to say 'What the hell is going on? Have we gone nuts?' " Fowler said. "How many
kids could that buy health insurance for?"

September 2, 2004 SECTION: Vol. 36, No. 36